A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
