Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
